Southern California Automotive Market Trends: September 2026 (Archived)

Download the archived September 2026 report (PDF)

ARCHIVED EDITION. This report reflects data available as of September 9, 2026 and is kept here for reference. Figures have since changed. For the current read, see the November 2026 Southern California market report.

August delivered the strongest selling pace of 2026 at a 16.8 million SAAR, the sixth straight month above 16 million and the longest such streak since March 2020. Underneath it, the economics moved the wrong way: the average new-vehicle payment set an all-time August record at $812, incentives fell to 6.5% of transaction price, and dealership net pretax profit is down 11.8% year over year. The decisive change this week is not in the sales data at all. Markets have repriced the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting from a hold to a likely rate increase, inverting the assumption most Q4 dealer plans were built on.

Published September 2026 by DigitalCLIQ. New and used vehicle sales, service and fixed operations, and parts, with 6 and 12 month outlooks for Southern California. Every figure below is sourced and dated.

The numbers at a glance

Figure	What it measures	Source
16.8M	August new-vehicle SAAR, the strongest pace of 2026 and a sixth straight month above 16M	Cox Automotive and NADA Market Beat, September 2026
$812	Average new-vehicle monthly payment, the highest on record for any August	NADA Market Beat, September 4 2026
$5.88	California gas per gallon against $4.22 nationally, the widest spread in the country	AAA Fuel Prices, September 9 2026
52.8%	Fixed ops share of total dealership gross profit, up from 50.1% a year earlier	Presidio-NCM Benchmark, Q2 2026

The throughline

Volume is not the problem and demand has not broken. Margin and payment structure are. Dealers are selling at the best pace of the year while making 11.8% less pretax profit, front-end gross is down double digits on both new and used, and fixed operations plus F&I now carry the P&L. For a Southern California dealer, two cost inputs decide the quarter: a record monthly payment against a possible rate increase on September 16, and fuel at $5.88 in a state that just permanently lost 17.5% of its refining capacity. The winning store engineers payments and sells total cost of ownership rather than discounting a price it cannot control.

Key trends this month

• The Federal Reserve consensus flipped within the last week. Markets now price a 25 basis point increase at the September 15-16 FOMC at roughly 56% to 65% odds, reversing a July framing that pointed toward relief.
• SAAR rose to a 2026 high of 16.8 million while raw August volume fell 5.8% to 1.381 million units. The gap is a calendar artifact: 26 selling days against 27 a year ago, with Labor Day traffic shifting into September.
• Affordability is the binding constraint, not demand. The average payment hit a record $812 at a 6.55% average rate while incentives fell to 6.5% of transaction price. Prices up, support down, payments at a ceiling.
• Southern California is underperforming an already soft state. SoCal retail registrations fell 7.6% in the first half and the Los Angeles and Orange County core fell 9.0%, against 7.7% statewide and roughly 2.8% nationally.
• The powertrain mix inverted after the federal EV credit expired. Battery-electric share fell to 6.2% of August sales from 10.1% a year earlier, while California hybrid share hit a record 22.1%.
• Fixed operations is now more than half of total store gross profit at 52.8%, but its growth is warranty-led while customer-pay hours per repair order are slipping.

What is happening in new vehicle sales?

A record selling pace on a shrinking calendar.

• New-vehicle SAAR: 16.8M. August 2026, up 1.6% year over year and the strongest pace of 2026. Sixth straight month above 16M, longest since March 2020. Cox Automotive and NADA, September 2026.
• August volume: 1.381M units. Down 5.8% year over year on 26 selling days against 27 in August 2025, with Labor Day traffic shifting into September. Cox Automotive, September 8 2026.
• Avg transaction price: $49,855. July 2026, the most recent published monthly figure, up 1.9% year over year. Cox reports August topped $50,000 for the first time since December 2025 but has not yet published the exact figure. Kelley Blue Book, August 11 2026.
• Incentive spend: 6.5% of ATP. $3,264 per unit in August, down 7.3% year over year. OEM support is being withdrawn as prices rise. Cox Automotive, September 8 2026.
• Avg monthly payment: $812. August 2026, up 3.7% year over year and the highest payment on record for any August, at a 6.55% average rate. NADA Market Beat, September 4 2026.
• Days' supply: 75 days. As of August 1, down from a revised 82 days on July 1, with 2.73 million units available. Toyota, Lexus and Honda tightest; Stellantis heaviest. Cox Automotive and vAuto, August 13 2026.

Southern California: California is deteriorating faster than the nation, and Southern California faster still in its urban core. Statewide first-half registrations fell 7.7% against a national market down roughly 2.8%, and the Los Angeles and Orange County core fell 9.0%. The powertrain story is the sharpest in the country: zero-emission registrations fell 24.8% while hybrid share reached a record 22.1%. This reframes performance review entirely. A store running flat to down three points is beating its market by roughly five points, and that is the correct framing for an owner conversation.

Outlook for new vehicle sales

Next 6 months. Expect the selling pace to soften from August's 16.8 million. Full-year forecasts cluster at 15.8 million from Cox Automotive, at least 16.0 million from NADA and 16.0 million from Deutsche Bank, all below the 16.1 million year-to-date pace. The September 16 Federal Reserve decision is the largest swing factor for the next two quarters. A hike raises consumer payments and dealer floorplan expense at the same time, so pull rate-relief language out of creative now. In Southern California, plan allocation toward hybrids and efficient internal combustion, because fuel at $5.88 and a record 22.1% state hybrid share are structural rather than seasonal.

Next 12 months. The affordability ceiling is durable. Section 232 tariffs at 25% survived the June 2026 Supreme Court ruling that struck down IEEPA tariffs, so roughly $5,000 to $8,900 in embedded cost per imported unit has no legal off-ramp in sight. With incentives disciplined near 6.5% and transaction prices at $50,000, payment engineering rather than price discounting is the durable competitive skill. California registrations are forecast at 1.73 million for 2026 and the state is losing share faster than the nation, so share taken during this downturn is the cheapest a store will ever buy. Watch the Advanced Clean Cars II waiver litigation, still pending and unresolved.

What is happening in used vehicle sales?

Values firm, affordable inventory gone. Wholesale values are drifting down in an orderly way rather than breaking. The full-month August Manheim index came in at 208.2, up 0.4% year over year but down 0.9% from July, and depreciation actually decelerated through the back half of the month. The real story is supply distribution, not price level. Wholesale days' supply tightened to 27 days and retail to 44, which limits how far retail prices can fall. Beneath that, the affordable end has been hollowed out: sub-$15,000 inventory is down 20% year over year and carries just 32.2 days' supply.

• Manheim Index: 208.2. Full-month August 2026, up 0.4% year over year but down 0.9% from July. Supersedes the mid-month 207.4 partial reading. Cox Automotive and Manheim, September 8 2026.
• Avg used retail price: $27,028. Up 6% year over year and essentially flat from June. July 2026 data; Cox has not yet published the August used-vehicle inventory report. Cox Automotive, August 2026.
• Wholesale days' supply: 27 days. End of August, down 1.4 days from July but up 2.3 days year over year. Retail used supply tightened to 44 days, down 2 from July. Cox Automotive and vAuto, September 8 2026.
• Sub-$15K supply: 32.2 days. Against a 46-day market average. That tier is down 20% year over year and has shrunk from 20.6% to 16.4% of all used inventory. Cox Automotive, July 2026.
• Negative equity on trades: $6,884. Highest second quarter on record, on nearly three in ten trade-ins. Those buyers carry a record $944 average payment and $16,270 in lifetime interest. Edmunds, Q2 2026.
• CPO sales: 223,676. Up 6.6% month over month and 15.5% of used retail sales. July 2026; the August figure has not been published. Cox Automotive, July 2026.

Southern California: No named research body publishes a Southern California specific used-vehicle price, volume or days' supply figure, and CNCDA's California Auto Outlook covers new-vehicle registrations only. The regional read has to be drawn by inference. Southern California new-vehicle registrations fell 7.6% in the first half, and fewer new deliveries today means a thinner three-year-old trade and lease-return pool in 2029, a genuine medium-term sourcing risk for SoCal used departments.

Outlook for used vehicle sales

Next 6 months. Tight supply at both wholesale and retail should keep values firm through year end rather than allowing a correction. The binding problem is sourcing at the affordable end. Dealers surveyed by Cox named sub-$20,000 inventory as their core constraint, and the used-vehicle sentiment index sits at 43 against a long-term third-quarter norm of 51. Merchandise sedans and compacts deliberately, and tighten EV reconditioning cadence.

Next 12 months. Relief arrives on the supply side in late 2026 and 2027. Off-lease returns rise from roughly 1.9 million in 2025 to about 2.4 million in 2026, the strongest argument for investing in lease-return capture now. Expect three-year-old retention to keep compressing toward 58.2% of original MSRP. Credit is a variable to monitor monthly rather than plan a year around.

What is happening in service and fixed operations?

More than half the profit, less than a third of the visits. Fixed operations crossed a threshold in the second quarter: at 52.8% of total gross profit, up from 50.1% a year earlier, it is now the load-bearing profit center of the average franchised store, and the only major department that grew while new-vehicle gross per unit fell 13.5% and used fell 10.0%. The growth is real but its composition deserves scrutiny. Warranty repair order growth of 15% drove total repair order count up 5.9%, while customer-pay hours per repair order slipped from 2.1 to 2.0 and both hours and revenue per customer-pay repair order are down year to date. A store reading only its total repair order count will miss that its paying-customer business is eroding underneath a warranty surge.

• Fixed ops share of gross: 52.8%. Second quarter 2026, up from 50.1% a year earlier. The largest single source of gross profit at the average store. Presidio-NCM Benchmark, Q2 2026.
• Fixed ops gross growth: +5.2%. Second quarter year over year, an acceleration from just 1.4% in the first quarter, with the gain back-loaded into June. Presidio-NCM Benchmark, Q2 2026.
• Dealer share of service visits: 29%. Down from 33% in 2018. Worst on the newest vehicles: under two years old fell from 68% to 55%, and two to five years old from 58% to 45%. Cox Automotive, April 9 2026.
• Warranty RO growth: +15%. Drove total repair order count up 5.9% in the first quarter, while customer-pay hours per RO fell from 2.1 to 2.0. Optimum Info, Q1 2026.
• Absorption rate: 77.7%. First quarter 2026, up from 73.8% a year earlier. Measured on the Optimum Info dealer panel; not directly comparable to NADA averages. Optimum Info, Q1 2026.
• Repair cost inflation: +6.6%. Vehicle maintenance and repair over the twelve months ended July, against parts and equipment up only 1.5%. The increase is labor-driven, not parts-driven. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 12 2026.

Electric vehicles are a long-term parts problem but a near-term retention asset, and Southern California is where that matters most. Cox Automotive found 67% of EV owner service visits go to a dealership, against 50% for hybrid owners and just 28% for internal combustion owners, and EV owners spend more per visit at $417 against a $261 average. California has the deepest EV parc in the country, so that loyalty advantage carries more absolute weight here than for the average national dealer. Technician EV-certification percentages circulating in trade content trace to no named primary study and are deliberately excluded.

The shortage is real, but retention rather than recruiting is the sharper problem. TechForce counts roughly 70,865 annual technician openings against a supply near 50,085, a gap of about 20,780 a year. The retention figures are what should concern a general manager: entry-level technician turnover runs 67% with median tenure of 0.9 years, and even master technicians turn over at 18%. The cost shows up in the second-quarter benchmark, where personnel expense rose to 37.8% of gross profit from 37.2%. The offset is that labor gross per technician grew 6.9% to $19,851.

Outlook for service and fixed operations

Next 6 months. Protect customer-pay volume, because that is where the erosion is. The highest-return change available this quarter is photo and video multi-point inspection: consumers who received dealer media spent $640 per repair order against $410 for those who did not. Then fix the perception problem, which is squarely a marketing problem. Dealers are actually cheaper at $261 against $275 for general repair, yet general repair now edges them as the top provider considered.

Next 12 months. The aging fleet is both the tailwind and the trap. Average vehicle age is at a record, 61% of owners keep vehicles five years or longer, and 80% of a vehicle's ten-year service cost lands after year five. The work is coming. The open question is whether it arrives at the dealership or the independent down the street, and current share trends say the latter. Chain service centers grew from 20% to 42% as customers' primary provider between 2020 and 2025, and that is the competitive set now.

What is happening in parts?

A growing pie, a shrinking dealer slice. The aftermarket is growing faster than the dealership's share of it. Total auto care industry growth is forecast at 5.4% in 2026 to $599.7 billion, with the light-duty channel alone up 5.2%, while same-store fixed-ops gross profit at the six public retailers grew only 0.1% to 3.4% in the second quarter. The aging fleet keeps the demand tailwind intact, with average light-duty vehicle age at a record and the parc projected to exceed 301 million by 2029. The tariff picture, which dominated last year's parts planning, is now materially more complicated than the flat 25% figure most dealer memos still quote, and two entirely new non-tariff supply shocks are queued for the back half of the year.

• Total auto care growth 2026: +5.4%. Full industry forecast to $599.7 billion, against 3.9% actual growth in 2025. The light-duty channel alone is forecast at +5.2%. Auto Care Association, June 11 2026.
• Average fleet age: 12.9 years. A record high per the 2027 Auto Care Factbook. S&P Global Mobility's most recent annual release, dated May 2025, reads 12.8 years; no 2026 S&P update has been published. Auto Care Association, June 11 2026.
• Parts price inflation 2025: OEM +4.21%. Aftermarket parts rose 3.89% over the same period. Plastic components such as bumper covers and headlamps rose steeper than sheet metal. Enlyte Envision Trends Report, June 8 2026.
• Section 232 parts tariff: 25% baseline. USMCA-qualifying parts exempt. Japan capped at 15% since September 2025 and the EU since July 2026, and the effective duty on collision parts acquisition cost stepped down to 15% in January 2026. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, December 2025.
• ADAS calibration frequency: 34.7%. Of repair estimates in 2025, up from 12.1% in 2022, at an average $688 when present. Calibration lines grew 31.4% year over year. Enlyte Envision Trends Report, June 8 2026.
• Parts repaired rather than replaced: 15.5%. Up from 14.8% in 2024, the first increase in a decade and a direct response to OEM parts cost. A structural headwind to dealer parts volume. Enlyte, June 8 2026.

The inflation gap between OEM and aftermarket narrowed in the full-year 2025 data but its direction is unchanged: OEM parts rose 4.21% against aftermarket at 3.89%. The mechanical reason matters for anyone pricing a parts counter. The Section 232 duty applies to acquisition cost, not list price, so a low-cost aftermarket part absorbs a far smaller dollar tariff than a high-list OEM part. Recycled parts offer no relief, because recycled pricing is tied to OEM list. OEM still wins the collision counter on volume at 52% of parts purchased, against aftermarket at 20% and recycled at 6%.

Electric vehicles cut the long-run parts annuity, but the near-term offset is in the collision bay rather than the powertrain. MSX research estimates the value of ordinary service maintenance and parts repair falls by roughly 60% for an EV. Against that, ADAS calibration is the clearest growth line in fixed operations, now touching 34.7% of repair estimates at an average $688 and growing 31.4% a year. A store without calibration capability is handing away the fastest-growing line item in collision.

Outlook for parts

Next 6 months. Two supply shocks are queued for the back half of 2026 and neither is tariff-related. DRAM supply growth is projected at 16% and NAND at 17%, both below the historical norm, and aluminum faces a deficit of up to 3 million tons. On tariffs, the practical guidance is to stop quoting a flat 25% and verify country of origin part by part. Scope risk has replaced rate risk, because Commerce can add new parts to the list each quarter.

Next 12 months. Position the parts department against the aftermarket, not against the store across town. Chain service centers grew from 20% to 42% as customers' primary provider, independent shops perform roughly 70% of aftermarket installations, and the light-duty aftermarket is on track to surpass $500 billion by 2029. Build ADAS calibration capability, build real digital presence for the parts counter, and plan for softer collision parts volume per claim.

What should a dealer do about it?

Next 6 months

• Rebuild every desking and advertising assumption: assume rates hold or rise through year end, and pull rate-relief language out of creative before September 16. Markets price a hike at roughly 56% to 65% odds. A store still running cut-anticipation messaging will look uninformed to its own customers.
• Move the advertised metric from price to payment, and from payment to total cost of ownership: with a record $812 payment and California fuel at $5.88, a payment plus fuel-savings comparison is the only framing that survives a shopper's actual math.
• Build a compliant campaign around the auto loan interest deduction: advertise it as a deduction subject to eligibility and income phase-outs, never as a guaranteed saving or a discount. The IRS finalized the rules September 8, covering up to $10,000 of interest on new U.S. final-assembly vehicles for tax years 2025 through 2028, claimable even by standard-deduction filers.
• Reweight new inventory orders toward hybrids and fuel-efficient compacts: California hybrid share is at a record 22.1% and climbing, and the fuel picture will not improve while state refining capacity is down 17.5%.
• Install photo and video multi-point inspection in the service lane now. It is the highest-return operational change available, worth a $230 gap in average repair order, and it directly defends the customer-pay business that is currently eroding.
• Tighten subprime expectations and retrain the floor on early credit qualification. With Fitch delinquencies at a 32-year high, lenders will shrink approvable tiers, and the store should stop burning showroom hours on deals that will not fund.
• Audit EV inventory exposure immediately. Used EV wholesale values fell 4.7% in a single month while off-lease supply accelerates. Age out EV units faster than the rest of the inventory rather than treating the positive year-over-year headline as protection.
• Set owner expectations that third-quarter pretax profit will likely print down again year over year, but against a far fairer comparison than the second quarter's inflated tariff pull-ahead base.

Next 12 months

• Position the store as the fuel-cost authority in its market: the California refinery cliff is structural through 2027 and the state-to-national spread is unlikely to close. A dealer that owns the efficiency conversation for twelve months builds an advantage no competitor can copy with a rebate.
• Rebuild the gross model around F&I, fixed operations and used: stop underwriting the store on new-vehicle front-end gross, which is down 13.5% with Section 232 permanent. F&I set a record $1,769 per vehicle retailed. That is where the recoverable margin actually is.
• Model floorplan interest, lease residuals and contracts-in-transit costs at rates above today's rather than below. If the Fed hikes in September, the terminal path is higher than the 2026 plan assumed.
• Treat California ZEV policy as the demand lever now that the federal credit is gone. Build the operational muscle to process point-of-sale state rebates cleanly, because that capability becomes a competitive advantage as programs scale.
• Invest in used-vehicle acquisition capability outside the auction lane. New affordability is capped by tariffs and rates, off-lease supply is expanding, and stores that can source directly will out-earn those competing for the same scarce units at falling conversion rates.
• Build the compliance layer before scaling any of this. California's CARS Act takes effect October 1 2026, and every payment, fuel-savings, tax-deduction and rebate claim in these recommendations will be scrutinized under it. Federal advertising law first, then CARS Act, then OEM co-op.
• Budget for share capture rather than survival. California registrations are forecast at 1.73 million for 2026 and Southern California fell 7.6% in the first half. In a shrinking market, share taken during the downturn is what a store carries into the recovery, and it is cheapest to take now while competitors retrench.

Risks to monitor

• A Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16, now the market's base case at roughly 56% to 65% odds. This is the single largest near-term risk to Southern California floor traffic, and it raises dealer floorplan expense at the same time it raises consumer payments.
• Fuel as a demand shock rather than a nuisance. California at $5.88 a gallon with Brent near $100 means the pump is now a primary purchase input. Roughly three of four shoppers say gas prices are changing what they will consider.
• The California refinery cliff is structural, not cyclical. Losing 17.5% of state refining capacity keeps the state-to-national spread wide regardless of what crude does.
• Payment affordability at a record ceiling. An average $812 payment against a 6.90% sixty-month rate and a $49,855 transaction price means the payment, not the price, is what kills deals.
• Subprime credit at a 32-year stress peak. Fitch's 60-day delinquency index hit a record 6.90%, against a pandemic trough of 2.58%, and the bottom of the credit market is effectively closing.
• California demand deteriorating faster than the nation, down 7.7% in the first half against 2.8% nationally, with the Los Angeles and Orange County core down 9.0%.
• Consumer forward expectations in recession territory. The Conference Board Expectations Index at 68.2 has been below the 80.0 recessionary threshold continuously since February 2025.
• Front-end gross still eroding on both sides of the house, with new gross per unit down 13.5% to $1,840 and used down 10.0% to $1,409. Volume gains do not automatically restore profit.
• Dealer service share still bleeding at the newest vehicles, where under-two-year-old share fell from 68% to 55%, forfeiting the entire post-warranty service annuity.
• Two non-tariff parts supply shocks queued for the back half of 2026: a DRAM and NAND squeeze driven by AI data-center demand, and an aluminum deficit forecast at up to 3 million tons.

Opportunities to pursue

• The auto loan interest deduction is a live federal tax provision, finalized September 8 and subject to eligibility and income phase-outs. Almost no consumer knows about it, and most will hear it from an F&I office before an accountant.
• Hybrids are the product of the moment in California at a record 22.1% state share, with hybrid shopping up about 25% since late 2025. Stores with hybrid allocation should lead with fuel savings at $5.88 a gallon rather than the trim walk.
• F&I is the profit engine and it is working, at a record $1,769 per vehicle retailed, up 4.8%, precisely while front-end gross falls double digits. Process investment there has a higher marginal return than another ten thousand dollars of new-vehicle advertising.
• Photo and video multi-point inspection converts at a $230 premium per repair order, with 49% of consumers saying the media made them more likely to approve recommended work. It is the cheapest fixed-ops gross available.
• The dealer service perception gap is a marketing problem with a factual answer. Dealers are genuinely cheaper at $261 against $275 for general repair, and if cost were perceived as equal, 45% would prefer the dealership against 32%. That gap is winnable with communication rather than discounting.
• California's MyFirstEV instant rebate is a point-of-sale tool rather than a tax-time promise, at $3,500 on a new EV under $50,000 MSRP or $1,750 on a used EV under $25,000 for first-time buyers. Rare cash on the hood for a category that just lost federal support.
• Off-lease supply rising from roughly 1.9 million in 2025 to about 2.4 million in 2026 is the sourcing relief valve, and the strongest argument for pushing lease-return capture now.
• ADAS calibration is the fastest-growing line item in collision, on 34.7% of estimates at $688 average and growing 31.4% annually. It is the clearest parts and service hedge against powertrain simplification.
• Market share is cheap right now. With California down 7.7% and competitors likely cutting spend, holding or increasing advertising investment buys share at a discount that will not exist in a recovery.

Frequently asked questions

How is the Southern California automotive market performing in September 2026?

August delivered the strongest selling pace of 2026 at a 16.8 million SAAR, the sixth straight month above 16 million and the longest such streak since March 2020. Underneath it, the economics moved the wrong way: the average new-vehicle payment set an all-time August record at $812, incentives fell to 6.5% of transaction price, and dealership net pretax profit is down 11.8% year over year. The decisive change this week is not in the sales data at all. Markets have repriced the September 16 Federal Reserve meeting from a hold to a likely rate increase, inverting the assumption most Q4 dealer plans were built on.

What is the single biggest factor driving the market right now?

Volume is not the problem and demand has not broken. Margin and payment structure are. Dealers are selling at the best pace of the year while making 11.8% less pretax profit, front-end gross is down double digits on both new and used, and fixed operations plus F&I now carry the P&L. For a Southern California dealer, two cost inputs decide the quarter: a record monthly payment against a possible rate increase on September 16, and fuel at $5.88 in a state that just permanently lost 17.5% of its refining capacity. The winning store engineers payments and sells total cost of ownership rather than discounting a price it cannot control.

What is the 12-month outlook for new vehicle sales?

The affordability ceiling is durable. Section 232 tariffs at 25% survived the June 2026 Supreme Court ruling that struck down IEEPA tariffs, so roughly $5,000 to $8,900 in embedded cost per imported unit has no legal off-ramp in sight. With incentives disciplined near 6.5% and transaction prices at $50,000, payment engineering rather than price discounting is the durable competitive skill. California registrations are forecast at 1.73 million for 2026 and the state is losing share faster than the nation, so share taken during this downturn is the cheapest a store will ever buy. Watch the Advanced Clean Cars II waiver litigation, still pending and unresolved.

What is the outlook for dealership service and fixed operations?

Protect customer-pay volume, because that is where the erosion is. The highest-return change available this quarter is photo and video multi-point inspection: consumers who received dealer media spent $640 per repair order against $410 for those who did not. Then fix the perception problem, which is squarely a marketing problem. Dealers are actually cheaper at $261 against $275 for general repair, yet general repair now edges them as the top provider considered.

What are the biggest risks for dealers to monitor?

A Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16, now the market's base case at roughly 56% to 65% odds. This is the single largest near-term risk to Southern California floor traffic, and it raises dealer floorplan expense at the same time it raises consumer payments. Fuel as a demand shock rather than a nuisance. California at $5.88 a gallon with Brent near $100 means the pump is now a primary purchase input. Roughly three of four shoppers say gas prices are changing what they will consider. The California refinery cliff is structural, not cyclical. Losing 17.5% of state refining capacity keeps the state-to-national spread wide regardless of what crude does.

Sources

1. AAA Fuel Prices, September 9 2026
2. AAPEX, 2026 State of the Automotive Aftermarket Survey, March 2026
3. Auto Care Association / MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers / S&P Global Market Intelligence, 2026 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast, June 11 2026
4. Auto Care Association, 2027 Auto Care Factbook (36th edition), June 11 2026
5. Automotive News, same-store fixed operations roundup, August 7 2026
6. AutoNation, Q2 2026 earnings, July 2026
7. Bankrate, weekly auto loan rate survey, September 3 2026
8. Black Book, 2026 Outlook
9. Bloomberg, CNBC and CNN Business, crude oil and Middle East supply reporting, September 2026
10. California Air Resources Board, MyFirstEV instant rebate program, August 2026
11. California Employment Development Department, July 2026 labor market release, August 21 2026
12. California New Car Dealers Association, Q2 2026 California Auto Outlook (Experian Automotive), July 20 2026
13. CARFAX Used Car Index, August 2026 data, September 1 2026
14. CarPro, August 2026 U.S. brand sales recap, September 7 2026
15. CCC Intelligent Solutions, 2026 Crash Course
16. CME FedWatch, September 2026 FOMC probabilities
17. CNBC, Federal Reserve policy and Jackson Hole coverage, August and September 2026
18. Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Survey, August 26 2026
19. Congressional Research Service, IN12545, Section 232 automobile and auto parts tariffs
20. Cox Automotive / Manheim, Used Vehicle Value Index, August 2026, September 8 2026
21. Cox Automotive / vAuto Live Market View, new-vehicle inventory, August 13 2026
22. Cox Automotive, 2026 Fixed Operations and Ownership Study, April 9 2026
23. Cox Automotive, Auto Market Weekly Summary, September 8 2026
24. Cox Automotive, Dealer Sentiment Index Q3 2026, September 8 2026
25. Cox Automotive, used-vehicle inventory and CPO report, July 2026 data
26. Deutsche Bank auto equity research, September 8 2026
27. Edmunds, Q2 2026 used vehicle and trade-in report, July 17 2026
28. Enlyte, 2026 Envision Trends Report (Mitchell estimating data), June 8 2026
29. Everstream Analytics and Z2Data, 2026 semiconductor memory supply analysis
30. Federal Reserve, FOMC statement and minutes, July 28-29 2026
31. Fitch Ratings, auto ABS subprime delinquency index, 2026
32. Hedges & Company, U.S. auto parts digital influence forecast, 2026
33. IRS and U.S. Treasury, final rules on the auto loan interest deduction, September 8 2026
34. Kelley Blue Book / Cox Automotive, Average Transaction Price report, August 11 2026
35. Mordor Intelligence, U.S. aftermarket automotive parts and components market report, 2026
36. MSXI Benchmarker, EV versus internal combustion service and parts value analysis
37. NADA Data, service and parts, 2025 full year
38. NADA Dealership Workforce Study, technician turnover and retention
39. NADA Market Beat, September 4 2026
40. Optimum Info, Dealer Financial Analysis Report Q1 2026, published September 2026
41. PartsTrader, Collision Parts Price Index and tariff analysis, February and May 2026
42. Penske Automotive Group, Q2 2026 results, July 29 2026
43. Presidio-NCM Average Dealership Performance Benchmark, Q2 2026
44. Repairer Driven News, collision parts reporting, May 2026
45. S&P Global Mobility, average age of light vehicles in operation, May 21 2025
46. TechForce Foundation, 2026 Technician Supply and Demand Report, May 2026
47. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, July 2026 data, August 12 2026
48. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Section 232 auto parts FAQ, December 19 2025
49. U.S. Energy Information Administration, West Coast gasoline outlook, 2026
50. UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies and College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, 2026 analyses

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